BTC/USD 1-Day Chart on Bitstamp ( TradingView )
The death cross between the 100-Day and the 200-Day Moving Average acted as a strong bear signal as price slid as prior support. The bear cross with the 128-Day moving average is getting closer to a realization as well. A bounce before that is a possibility; however, the trend at the moment is bearish.
The prior swing lows around $7700, and $7300 will cover the last areas of support before further breakdown.
Nevertheless, the market still appears inclined towards long. On BitMEX, there is a slight inclination of short orders (52%). However, funding rates are still positive. On Okex and Bitmex, the markets continue to be in contango. The ratio of long/short ratio is highest on Bitfinex with 80% longs and 20% short. On Okex, the BTC basis is greater than $10, signaling a long interest.
Bitcoin Derivative Basic Stats (Long/Short) from 3 Exchanges ( Source )
Less than 6 Months to Halving
Bitcoin [BTC] halving is scheduled for May in 202o. The halving of rewards to miners has been mostly bullish in the past; It has acted as a strong fundamental reason for a price run.
Expert on-chain analyst, Willy Woo explained why “This is a unique setup.”
He notes that the reversal from $14000 is bearish, which is further accelerated by miner capitulation. Hence, he suggests that Bitcoin is in a short term bearish market.
This is the first halving having Futures contracts, could be this the reason for the Bearish setup? @UglyOldGoat1 mention that Miners did hedge at 13k, plus having CME and Bakkt for this Halving, could this be the reason? Could this halving play different than the 2 prior?
— zezo duarte (@Zezo_Duarte) November 18, 2019
Moreover, while the price looks disruptive for the miners, the evolution of the market is supporting their long term existence. The futures markets allowed traders to hedge against their losses at $13,000. Hence, the miners might not be taking a considerable loss. Nevertheless, in a bearish setup, it adds to the selling pressures.
Do you think a Bitcoin bounce is probable? Please share your views with us.
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